A lot has changed during this offseason, so many NFL teams will significantly improve while others will seriously decline during the 2023 season. Some of these teams are obvious, while others are more obscure but justified. Enjoy the rankings!
Improve: Houston Texans
The bar isn't very high for the Texans, making this a safe bet. Three wins in 2022 is pretty easy to beat, especially with plenty of improvements on both sides of the ball. The first step was hiring a new head coach in Domeco Ryans. Ryans was the brilliant defensive mind who helped the 49ers' defense become the league's best. The Texans' defense will not be anywhere near the best in 2023 but has added Will Anderson Jr. in the draft and Jamie Ward in free agency. The Texans also helped the offense in the draft, with their first pick being quarterback C.J. Stroud. Stroud might not be a drastic improvement in 2023, but he does have a great balance of skills and was the best QB in the draft. The free agency acquisition of tight end Dalton Schultz isn't a blockbuster move, but Schultz should help Stroud in his rookie year. The Texans will still be irrelevant during the upcoming 2023 season, but for the first time in 5 years, they might not get last place in the AFC South. 4-7 wins is projected for this team.
Decline: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings had one of the wildest and luckiest seasons ever in 2022, winning 13 games with a negative point differential and a bottom-tier defense. They couldn't replicate that success with the same roster. But the loss of receiver Adam Thielen and running back Dalvin Cook will cause the passing and running game to decline. The 28th-ranked defense in 2022 will be even worse due to the losses of corner Patrick Peterson and edge rusher Zadarius Smith. Eleven of the Vikings' wins were one-score games during the 2022 season. An optimistic approach would be subtracting 5 of those, equaling only eight wins and no playoff berth. Even if head coach Kevin O'Connell is good at winning close games, they are due to get dished in the wild card round for the second year in a row win less regular season wins. Because of this, the Vikings have a low floor and high ceiling, with their projected win total ranging from 6-11.
Improve: Carolina Panthers
The Panthers had a surprisingly good record, with seven wins. But they certainly benefited from an easy division and some luck. They made their fair share of improvements during the offseason, making them a legitimately decent team, with their win total likely to increase. Drafting quarterback Bryce Young gives them security at the QB position they have not had in previous seasons. The front desk made sure to surround Young with a plethora of offensive weapons. When Adam Theilen left Minnesota, he moved to North Carolina. Free agency aquisition Miles Sanders ranked 4th in rushing yards in the prior season. D.J Clark Jr. and Hayden Hurst were not blockbuster additions but are quality wideouts that will help Young in his rookie year. The secondary was also refined thanks to aquiring corners Vonn Bell. Corner Jaycee Horn will improve during his third season, entering his prime. The Panthers
are the best pick to win the NFC South, with a projected win total of 7-9. The Falcons and Saints are plausible division victors, but they don't have the balance and offensive explosiveness that the Panthers do.
Decline: Buffalo Bills
Bills fans don't need to panic, the Bills will still likely be an AFC heavyweight. But more competition in the AFC East will cause the Bills to have a down year, at least compared to their past few seasons. While the Bills did lose linebacker Tremaine Edmunds in free agency, this is more about the teams that they play improving. Aaron Rodgers coming to the Big Apple, more like Rutherford, New Jersey, will make the Jets a stronger team. The Jets' other additions such as Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard will give Rodgers more toys to play with. The Dolphins adding corner Jalen Ramsey will slow down the Bills' passing offense twice a season but will provide a fun Stefon Diggs vs. Jalen Ramsey matchup. The Patriots revamping the defense is also a factor. The Bill's projected win total is 11-13, with their previous record being their ceiling.
Improve: Chicago Bears
Following a 14-loss season, there is nowhere to go but up. The front desk primarily focused on surrounding young quarterback Justin Fields with as many offensive weapons as possible. They did this by adding 1,000-yard receiver D.J Moore and running back D'onte Foreman. On defense, Tremaine Edmunds and T.J Edwards were added to fill the void at the linebacker position. This is a make-or-break season for Justin Fields, but even if he flops, they still have an improved defense to keep the ship from sinking. The Bears will still have plenty of holes and likely get last place in the NFC North. But their win total is projected to be 4-7, guaranteed to be better than the prior season.
Decline: Arizona Cardinals
Instead of choosing a heavyweight to decline, a safer bet, the Cardinals won only four games in 2022 but will likely win less and possibly be the first team to go 0-17. The Cards were a disaster during the 2022 season, but the worst is still yet to come. At this point, it's safe to say that drafting a 5'10, 207-pound quarterback was a failed experiment. But with Murray missing the first 13 games of the season, the quarterback situation will be even worse with Joshua Dobbs as the week one starter. Dobbs will have nobody to throw to, thanks to the offseason losses of tight end Zach Ertz and receiver Deondre Hopkins. Defenses will figure out their offensive scheme pretty quickly, which consists of just handing the ball off to James Conner. Besides Conner, safety Budda Baker is the only drop of water in what will be a dumpster fire of a season. The Cardinals' projected win total is 0-4, with the previous season being their ceiling.
Improve: New York Jets
This one is obvious. When you acquire a future hall-of-fame quarterback, improvement is inevitable. The Jets partook in the most blockbuster trade of the offseason, getting quarterback Aaron Rodgers. But they wanted to make sure that he was successful in the Big Apple, or Rutherford, New Jersey, by signing Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, two receivers that played with Rodgers played with for many seasons. The free agency acquisition of receiver Mecole Hardman will give their QB another quality read. Trading for Dalvin Cook also added more depth to the running game. Nearly all of the Jets' upgrades were on offense, but Sauce Gardner will build on one of the best rookie years for a defensive player. The Jets have changed during the offseason more than any other team, making their win total very difficult to predict. Nonetheless, 9-13 wins seem fitting for this team.
Decline: New York Giants
The Giants' reason for decline is similar to the Vikings. Winning nine games last season was a fluke, as they went 8-4 in one-score games with a subpar roster. Also similar to the Vikings is their first-year coach Brian Daboll, who was either exceptional at winning close games or lucky. Running back Saquan Barkley was miraculously healthy throughout the season, but his razzle-dazzle rushing style of going for a home run ball on every attempt is very prone to injury. Without Barkley, this team is irrelevant, as they've been for previous seasons. Daniel Jones is not a good quarterback, with his best season having just 3,205 yards and a 92.5 passer rating. The defense also overperformed in the prior season, with very little talent outside Kayvon Thibodeaux. The G-men have not made many changes to a substandard roster, thus a decline in 2023 is inevitable. Their projected win total is 4-8.
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