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Josh Green

A Deep Analysis of the Padres' Disastrous Season

Let's cut to the chase: The San Diego Padres are paying $ 251.1 million to sit at 4th in the NL West with a win-loss record below .500. If that isn't a disaster, then I don't know what is. Quite a few other teams have underperformed for the amount of money they have spent, put the Padres have seemingly gone under the radar. Why has this happened? And can they still turn their season around? Get ready for a deep analysis of the Padres' catastrophic season.



The concept of the Padres underperforming is not a new one. During the 2021 season, they went from first in the wild card race to missing the playoffs entirely. But the underperformance of the 2023 Padres has been much worse than their 2021 counterpart. They held the second-highest payroll heading into this 2023 season, with a payroll of $ 251.1 million. The roster is also stacked studs. It would take a great deal of time to list every star on that San Diego team, but here we go Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Ha-Seong Kim, Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Josh Hader, Joe Musgrove, and Michael Wacha. They have a star-studded roster, and it is balanced, containing elite threats on both sides of the ball. Expectations could not have been higher for the San Diego squad heading into the 2023 season. However, the team has completely flopped.



Francisco Lindor successfully steals, avoiding Rougned Odor's tag.
Francisco Lindor successfully steals, avoiding Rougned Odor's tag.


Stating that the Padres have not lived up to expectations would be an understatement. They currently sit at 4th in the NL West with a winning percentage of .478. So, why has this happened? Why have the Padres collapsed? They aren't even a statistically bad team or dysfunctional, ranking 6th in earned run average and 15th in OPS. The Padres have a point differential of +39. However, statistics and winning are not the same. It's rather evident in the situation that the Padres find themselves in. Since runs are the common denominator, batting avg with runners in scoring position(RISP) is a barrier between batting statistics without and winning ball games. But the Padres rank dead last in that category, failing to get runners across the plate despite their ability to get them on base. Another issue with the team is coaching. There are not many statistics that accurately measure the quality of coaching. But when a team with loads of talent plays underperforms to this extent, coaching is to blame.




Manny Machado Strikes out en route to a 4-3 loss to the Reds.
Manny Machado Strikes out en route to a 4-3 loss to the Reds.


Now that we know why the Padres' have lacked the expected success for this season, can they still turn things around? There are 70 games left in the season, so yes, the Padres can theoretically turn their season around. But will they turn it around? They currently rank 6th in the wild card race, so they will likely need to surpass the Brewers, Phillies, and Giants. Every one of these teams has a winning percentage of .538. But the Giants, who hold the third wild-card spot, have a winning percentage of .544. The Padres sit at .478, so they will likely need to win 44-49 of their next 70 games to land a playoff spot. It is a tough hill to climb, but doable. The Padres have all the pieces to make a late-season playoff squeeze, but time will be the ultimate decider for this question.


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