The Phillies headed into the 2022 playoffs with only 87 wins and in the third wild card spot, but managed to get to the World Series, beating the 101-win Braves. With the 2023 season coming to a close, the Phillies are in a similar position as they were one year ago. But this time, they're on pace to win 89 games and first in the wild card. So are the Phillies once again a dark horse World Series contender? Or just a mediocre team to be dished in the wild-card round?
Similar to last season, the Phillies had a slow start to their season but are ending strong. They went 21-29 through the first two months of the 2022 season and didn't get hot until they fired former manager Joe Girardi the next month. Compare that to this year's Phillies, who had much higher expectations but went 25-30 after their first two months. They got hot the following month, winning 18 of their next 26 games, ending June with a winning record. Not only do both teams start slow and get hot, they get hot at the same time. The fact that the 2023 Phillies are the same team as the 2022 Phillies probably deserves its article.
Even though their fluctuation in rankings has been the same over two seasons, we still have to examine the strength of the roster. The Phillies have an elite offense led by Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper, and Brandon Marsh. What this offense is especially good at is nothing. That's right. They are as balanced as it gets, ranking 5th in slugging percentage and 5th in batting average. The 2022 Phillies offense was eerily similar, ranking 8th in batting average and 6th in slugging percentage. Their potent combination of contact and power wreaks havoc against opposing pitchers and is the team's biggest strength.
Is the Phillies' pitching staff up to par?
Now let's look at the pitching. The Phillies' pitching staff is not extraordinary in any way, but sufficient enough to not be a glaring weakness. Now you're probably wondering if this 2023 pitching staff is similar to the 2022 pitching staff, but first, let's examine the quality of the Phillies' pitching. The starting rotation has no true ace but rather a plethora of average starters. Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suarez, and Michael Lorenzen are all decent pitchers who usually allow 2-3 runs per 5-6 inning outing. The bullpen is very similar to the rotation, with mostly average pitchers.
The Phillies' pitching as a whole ranks 14th in earned runs and 12th in earned run average with 3.98. Now let's compare it to the pitching squad of the season prior. On a statistical level, it is similar, even though it doesn't look like it at first. The Phillies ranked 18th in earned run average, which sounds like a bit of a difference, but their actual ERA was 3.97, only 0.01 less than the current season. A mere 0.01 difference is astronomically similar. The sheer amount of similarities between the 2022 and 2023 Phillies is getting a bit freaky, but we still need to look at the pitching similarities from a roster perspective. The bullpen has stayed the same for the most part, but the rotation is a different story. Michael Lorenzen and Taijuan Walker are 2023 off-season acquisitions, though they haven't made much of an impact (Good or Bad) on the pitching staff.
Do the Phillies have what it takes to win it all?
Knowing the strengths, weaknesses, and surprising similarities of this Phillies team, are they legitimate World Series contenders or just pretenders? Just because a similar team made it to the World Series in the prior season does not mean this Phillies team will have similar success. The 2022 playoff run could have just been a fluke. Fortunately for Phillies fans, that is not necessarily the case. The National League is wide open, and the Phillies capitalized on this in 2022. The NL remains uncompetitive this season, with the only legit threats being the Braves and Dodgers.
However, if they win in the wild-card round, their next opponent is the No.1 seeded Braves. The Braves are unquestionably the best team in the MLB and World Series favorites. While the Phillies miraculously beat the Braves in the 2022 divisional round, I wouldn't count on them winning the rematch. Their rivals 773 miles away have improved this season, and it's hard to see them lose in the same round to the same team two years in a row. It's especially true because of the similarities of the 2022 and 2023 Phillies. This time around, the Braves know what's coming.
So the Phillies may not be a total pretender and will likely beat whoever their wild card opponent is, but they shouldn't be taken seriously for a World Series victory.
Comments