The Steelers had varying expectations heading into the 2023 season. Not many major offseason acquisitions or departures occurred, although quarterback Kenny Pickett was expected to improve during his second season, and the defense had high expectations, with T.J. Watt hopefully healthy for the entire season. However, they play in one of the league's hardest divisions, the AFC North, and play in an AFC with a plethora of stacked teams. No one was quite sure if the Steelers were legitimate contenders. But fast forward eight weeks, and things have gotten even weirder.
Through these first six games, the Steelers' 4-2 record certainly gives them more credit than the team's statistics. Despite having a middle-of-the-pack roster and a 4-2 record, the Steelers rank 30th in yards allowed per game and 31st in offensive yards per game. But perhaps the strangest statistical aspect of this team is their point differential of -24. This means that they have allowed 24 more points than scored. A negative point differential for a winning percentage of .667 is a rare occurrence in the NFL.
So if the Steelers' statistics make them look like a bottom dweller, especially their point differential, how are they 4-2?
To obtain a good record while having a negative point differential, a team must occasionally lose by many scores and usually win by a single score. The Steelers have perfectly fit into this blueprint, with their losses being 30-7 and 30-6, while all their wins have been by one score. This makes the 2023 Steelers very similar to the 2022 Vikings. The Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games last season, and all their losses were by multiple scores. They also had a negative point differential.
However, there is a clear difference between these two teams. All of the Vikings' 2022 losses were to teams that ended with eight or more wins. It was obvious that the Vikings could not beat stronger teams, as they lost their first game by a single score in a 31-24 wild card round loss to the Giants. Having said that, the Steelers beat the 5-2 Ravens, the 3-4 Raiders, the 3-4 Rams, and the 3-3 Browns. They lost to the 5-2 49ers and the 3-3 Texans. As seen from their wins and losses, the Steelers' weekly performance greatly varies with little account for the strength of their opponent. This makes the Steelers' conundrum even more perplexing.
The ability to win close games against many different types of teams is a clear sign of good coaching. Vikings' head coach Kevin O'Connell was the runner-up in the 2022 Coach of the Year voting. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has proved himself as one of the league's best coaches, recording 16 straight winning seasons, two Super Bowl wins, and a Coach of the Year award. Considering that Tomlin was able to record a winning season with star pass rusher T.J. Watt out for half of last season, ending with a winning record in 2023 is very doable, as they currently sit at 4-2.
Nonetheless, good coaching is not the only reason for the Steelers' success in close games. While they rank low in many crucial statistics, they rank high in one stat: Turnovers. The Steelers rank 2nd in turnover difference with 6, meaning they force turnovers six more times than they turn the ball over themselves. Winning the turnover margin is essential in fielding a team that can win games, even against strong teams. Even if a team has the league's best roster, losing the turnover margin will cause underperformance, and vice versa.
However, a winning season and a substantial turnover margin do not guarantee contention.
Knowing this, are the Steelers contenders or pretenders?
While we may not know if the Steelers are contenders or pretenders until later in the season, they have shown they can beat tough teams. But what the Steelers really have going for them is that Kenny Pickett will likely progress throughout this season, making them a more dangerous team down the stretch. Pickett had his best game of the season in a 24-17 victory over the Rams, completing 68 percent of passes for 230 yards and no interceptions.
I'll label the Steelers as contenders.
Most of their statistics are not ideal, and they lack convincing victories. But at the end of the day, this team is winning football games. The offense can make plays when it matters most, and Mike Tomlin is one of the NFL's most competent head coaches. Though we have not seen quite enough from Steelers, making the them low-end contenders and their status could change soon.
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