The NFC south of one of the NFL's most competitive divisions, with no clear favorite. The Falcons, Buccaneers, Saints, and Panthers all have a case for winning the division crown. But which one will be? Here are some NFC South Predictions for the 2023 season:
New Orleans Saints:
Let's start with the Saints' case for winning the NFC South. They brought in quarterback Derek Carr during the 2023 free agency and certainly an upgrade from Jameis Winston. Carr had a solid performance in week one, throwing for 305 yards and 1 interception. Though the Saints' biggest strength on offense is their underrated receiving core. We're not quite sure which receiver is their No. 1 read, as there are many potent receiving threats on this roster. Chris Olave will likely improve from an impressive 1,000-yard 2022 rookie season and could be Derek Carr's top read, recording eight receptions for 112 yards. When healthy, Michael Thomas has been the no.1 wideout in previous seasons. He was not a significant factor in week one, recording 61 yards on five catches. Rasheed Saheed caught for 89 yards and five receptions but seems to be a potent red zone threat, scoring both of the Saints' tuddies. The Saints' offense will be centered around passing, but Jamaal Williams is a quality ground-and-pound red zone rusher. Though he is more of a situational running back.
The Saints' defense played pretty well against the Titans in week one, and the secondary played a signifacant role in that victory. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore was a key contributor on the defensive front in week one, with two tackles and an interception. Similarly every other NFC South team, the Saints are not a juggernaut or a bottom-dweller but rather a possible wild-card team, with a ceiling of 10 wins and a floor of 7. But unlike two of their division competitors, they have a veteran quarterback at the helm, contributing to their most substanial edge, their explosive passing offense.
Atlanta Falcons:
The Falcons are a team to watch, with their unconventional extremely rush-heavy, ground-and-pound offensive scheme. They scored 24 points against the division-rival Panthers in week 1, with Tyler Algeier being the leading rusher. Allgeier had an impressive 1,000-yard 2022 rookie season and can only improve. The rookie Bijan Robinson is more of a dual-threat running back, thus receiving for 27 yards and rushing for 56 yards, including a touchdown. It also helps that the Falcons' offensive line is one of the league's best after massively improving during the 2022 offseason.
While the rushing game is of elite caliber, the passing game is different. 2023 will be the young quarterback Desmond Ridder's first full season, and we don't know what the Falcons have in him due to most of the team's plays involving running the ball. Ridder only attempted 18 passes in week one but completed 15 for 115 yards. But if one or more teams slow down or even stop the rushing attack, Ridder could get a chance to prove himself. The receiving core is not stacked, consisting of Drake London and Kyle Pitts. 2023 is a make-or-break season for Pitts, as he recorded just 356 yards in a disappointing 2022 to follow up a 1,026-yard rookie season. Drake London had an abysmal week one game, with only one target and zero catches. Time will tell if London rebounds, but both receivers may have down seasons due to the extreme rushing.
When the Falcons took a running back, Bijan Robinson, in the first round of the draft, they took the risk of not improving the defense in the first round. Their defense is leaky from top to bottom, ranking 22nd in rushing yards allowed and 24th in passing yards allowed in 2022, and this supbar group did not improve during the offseason. The defense will likely be the Falcons' most consequential liability d this season. The Falcons will by no means be an elite team due to the leaky defense and lack of balance in the offense. But they outplayed their division rivals by a score of 24-10, making a convincing case to win the NFC South.
Carolina Panthers:
The Panthers' 24-10 loss to their rivals 250 miles away automatically makes winning the NFC South an uphill battle. They were also the only NFC South team to lose in the season's first week. Rookie quarterback Bryce Young struggled mightily in his first career start, throwing for just 146 yards and 20-38 against a Falcons defense that is mediocre at best. Young's receiving core is not spectacular, with Adam Thielen being the no.1 wideout. Yet Thelien did not even get the bulk of the targets, which was instead tight end Hayden Hurst. Running back Miles Sanders is due to decline after finishing 4th in rushing yards during the prior season. This is because he does not have the offensive line or rusher depth he did in Philadelphia. The offense overally looked weak and could never find a rhythm.
The defense wasn't much better. While the secondary looked sharp due to the amount of rest it got from only 18 attempted Falcon passes. But the defense overally did not slow down their opponents' offensive scheme. The ball run down their throats also meant that the defense had little rest, except for the secondary. The Panthers looked like a 5-8 win team in their first game, but that doesn't mean you should count them out for the division crown. While they are currently the least likely to win the division, there are still 17 more weeks for the Panthers to prove themselves.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Once Tom Brady retired, the Bucs got hardly any publicity, seemingly descending back into irrelevancy. But after week one, many are taking the Bucs seriously, for good reason. They brought Baker Mayfield during the offseason to have a game manager to keep the team from bottom-dwelling. Baker's week one performance against the Vikings was not that impressive, throwing for 173 yards and 21-34. He does throw to a receiver who has caught for 1,000+ yards in every one of his nine seasons. Mike Evans is the most consistently good player in the NFL.
But what was impressive about the Bucs was the defense, which forced three turnovers on an offense that scored the sixth most points in 2022. Safety Antione Winfield Jr. had an exceptional game, forcing a fumble and recording a sack. The pass rush and secondary were both disrupting the Vikings' offensive rhythm enough to win by a final score of 20-17. This Buccaneers defensive squad will be a lot better than many people thought, myself included. However, if this team did not have a glaring weakness, the NFC South would already be a lock. The running back position is a massive hole on the roster that was not properly addressed in the offseason. Even though the O-line is a top-tier group, the running back position, and the rushing scheme is lacking. Rachaad White was a liability in Minnesota, rushing for just 39 yards on 17 carries. When you give a running back of backup-level talent 17 carries, you get an abysmal 2.2 yards per carry. The lackluster running game will put unnecessary pressure on Baker Mayfield to be an extremely efficient passer, which he is not.
The Verdict:
Each team makes a convincing case to win this crowded division, especially because 3 of the four teams ended week 1 with a victory. But the Saints will win the NFC South once the season is over. In nearly every aspect of their team, they dominate over their division competitors. Their receiving core is miles better, with two possible 1,000-yard receivers, one or two more than the other three teams. The Saints have unquestionably the best quarterback in the division, as Derek Carr threw over 4,000 yards for four straight seasons. The rushing game is not at the level of the Falcons, but they have a quality rusher in Jamaal Williams. The defense has plenty of talent, with Marshon Lattimore leading the secondary and Cam Jordan pressuring opposing quarterbacks. The Bucs would probably win the NFC South, but their schedule is significantly more rigorous than all their division competitors. The Saints are a balanced and experienced team with many strengths to capitalize on to win games.
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