The recent Saquon Barkley signing has sent the NFL into a whirlwind, sparking excitement from Eagles fans and outrage from Giants fans. But to bring good news to the latter and bad news to the former, Saquon Barkley won't save the Eagles, and here's why:
The Eagles' Subpar defense
When you look at why the Eagles collapsed down the stretch of last season, the main reason is undoubtedly the defense. And, news flash: Saquon Barkley is a running back, and running backs don't play defense. No matter how dominant Barkley is on the field, he can't fix the Eagles' defense's inability to tackle which plagued the team late in the season. He also can't fix Jalen Hurts's turnover problems. Philly's aging defense actually got worse in the offseason, thanks to the retirement of Fletcher Cox, a 7-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle.
The only reason to believe that the Eagles' defense will avoid being torched by even the weakest of opponents next season, is the hiring of a new defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio. We have no idea if the defense will improve under Fangio, but with the recent retirements and lack of young talent, it's highly unlikely this defensive squad will reach the level of dominance of the Eagles' 2022 Super Bowl appearance.
Adding Saquon Barkley wasn't much of an upgrade
But enough about the defense: let's discuss Saquon Barkley's impact on his new team, or rather lack thereof. The Eagles essentially replaced Saquon Barkley for D'andre Swift at the running back position, who they traded away to the Bears. Replacing Barkley for Swift is an upgrade, but not a substantial one.
D'andre Swift had a career-best 2023 season with the Eagles, rushing for 1049 yards. However, Swift also didn't get to display his catching ability in Philadelphia, which made him such an electric player in Detroit. The pro-bowl running back consistently caught for over 500 yards with the Lions but only 214 in Philly.
Saquon Barkley has fairly similar statistics. Barkley consistently puts up 1,000+ rushing yards each season when healthy, but his ceiling is about 1,300 yards. And Barkley gets most of his yards on the ground; he isn't a dual-threat back like the former Eagles rusher. Nonetheless, his production declined in 2023, as he only recorded 962 rushing yards and averaged 3.9 yards per carry. Barkley's diminishing production last season was likely caused by the Giants' horrendous offensive line.
The former Giants' rusher is still an upgrade over D'andre Swift at the running back position for the Eagles, but a minuscule upgrade at that. Still don't believe me? Let's do the math: Barkley racked up 1650 total yards in his career-best 2022 season, while D'andre Swift recorded 1242 in his career-best 2023 season. Subtract those numbers, and you get 408, which you divide by 17 to calculate yards per game. The number you get is 24, which means that the Eagles would have about 24 more yards per game when handing the ball off to Barkley as opposed to their former running back. That's only about two and a half first downs and a fourth of the entire field. Not that much.
Saquon Barkley barely outclasses D'andre Swift when he's at his best. But Barkley will unlikely reach that level of production in 2024 in Philly due to age and the Eagles' deteriorating O-line.
Philadelphia's decaying offensive line
Unfortunately, we're living in an era where running backs are done by the age of 30 unless your name is Derrick Henry. Saquon Barkley is 27 now, and he'll be 30 by the end of his contract. If he doesn't experience an age decline in 2024, it will likely occur at some point during his time with the Eagles. And aging aside, Philadelphia's offensive line won't be the running back's wet dream that it had been in the past. The retirement of the 9-time pro bowl center, Jason Kelce, is the primary reason, but we also don't know how much Lane Johnson has left in the tank at the age of 33.
Saquon Barkley's proneness to injury is well documented, and the Eagles took a risk by signing him. Barkley's playstyle of going for a home run ball on every carry makes him much more susceptible to injury. Barkley will likely miss significant time at some point during his contract, and quite plausible that he will get hurt in 2024. And Saquon Barkley definitely can't save the Eagles if he can't even play.
Conclusion:
Saquon Barkley is a great running back, but he isn't the knight in shining armor that's going to magically make the Eagles' weaknesses vanish. Very few running backs could have such an impact on a team nowadays, and no one person can save the Eagles from descending into dysfunction after their untimely late-season collapse.
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