"Nine mistakes were made ahead of me. And I will make sure over the next decade or so that they will know that they made a mistake," were the words of quarterback Josh Rosen, taken 10th overall in the 2018 NFL draft. After being drafted by the Cardinals with the tenth pick in the draft, he had the ignorance and arrogance to say that the nine picks ahead of him were mistakes. Rosen became one of the biggest draft busts in NFL history, but who were the nine mistakes? And five years later, where are they now?
No.1 pick: Baker Mayfield
After winning the Heisman Trophy in college, it made sense that Baker Mayfield would be drafted first and by the previously 0-16 Cleveland Browns. The Browns desperately needed a generational talent, and Mayfield had a promising rookie year, throwing 3,725 yards and completing 63.8% of passes. But when more talent was acquired in the offseason, the pressure was mounting for Mayfield to perform as well as if not better than his rookie campaign. However, he regressed, throwing six more interceptions and completing 59% of passes. He did resurge in 2020, leading to a playoff win over the Steelers, but regressed again the following season.
Mayfield was then traded to the Panthers, where his performance was so bad that he got cut. Hours after getting cut, the Rams signed him, and he played the next day with no prior practice with his new teammates. His time with the Rams was short-lived, throwing for just 850 yards and completing 63% of passes. Through five NFL seasons, he has been on four teams, including his current team, the Bucs. For a first-overall pick, his career could have gone better, and he has been more a game manager.
No. 2 pick: Saquon Barkley
Running back Saquon Barkley was drafted by the Giants as the No. 2 overall pick. Barkley is an explosive running back who has no shortage of spectacular plays. However, the main issue throughout his career has been injury. Going for a home run ball on every play has made him very prone to injury. He recorded 1,000+ yards in his first two seasons, but a lackluster Giants team wasted that performance. He suffered a season-ending ACL tear in week two of the 2020 season, and his 2021 season ended thanks to a low ankle sprain in week 5. 2022 was his best career season, rushing for 1,312 yards and led his team to a wild card round victory against the Vikings. His ankle injury in week 2 of the 2023 season will only cause him to miss three games, though he may not rush for 1,000 yards. Saquon Barkley is a fun player to watch when healthy, but injuries have held him back throughout his career.
No. 3 pick: Sam Darnold
Many well-known quarterbacks were drafted in this draft, such as Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and of course, Josh Rosen. But one that has flown under the radar the Sam Darnold. He struggled in his rookie season with the Jets, with just 2,865 passing yards. He improved slightly the following season, throwing for 3,024 yards and completing 62% of passes. But his subpar year three in Rutherford, New Jersey, caused him to be traded to the Panthers. He spent two years in Carolina until they drafted quarterback Bryce Young. He is now backing up Brock Purdy in San Francisco. Sam Darnold is the biggest bust of the "nine mistakes", and is a borderline starter. He is one of the better running quarterbacks in the league but has never had a quality receiving core to work with.
No. 4 pick: Denzel Ward
The first defensive player taken from the 2018 draft was cornerback, Denzel Ward, drafted by the Cleveland Browns. Ward's rookie season was surprisingly one of his best, recording three interceptions, 41 tackles, and a Pro Bowl appearance. He played mostly man coverage in his rookie season but blitzed more often in his later seasons. His best career season was in 2021, as he recorded three interceptions, 2 QB hits, and his 2nd Pro Bowl appearance. Through six NFL seasons, he remains on the team that drafted him as a quality cornerback.
No. 5 pick: Bradley Chubb
While the Broncos should have taken a quarterback in this draft, Bradley Chubb had an impressive rookie season, recording 12.5 sacks and 21 QB hits. However, the defensive end from NC State never got to double-digit sacks again. Injuries severely limited his 2019 and 2021 seasons, though Chubb made the Pro Bowl in 2020 and 2022. He was traded to the Dolphins midway through the 2022 season and has had one sack and 2 QB hits through 2 games of the current season. Bradley Chubb captured lightning in a bottle in his rookie season, but he has never played at that level since, even when healthy. Chubb has served as increased pressure rather than a game-wrecker. Perhaps his initial left knee injury limited his abilities for the rest of his career, or opposing teams put more O-linemen to cover him after his unexpectedly good rookie performance.
No. 6 pick: Quenton Nelson
Offensive guard Quenton Nelson is the best pick in the draft thus far. After being drafted 6th overall by the Colts, he quickly became one of the league's most effective interior blockers. Unfortunately, there are very few statistics to measure O-linemen, which needs to change. Nevertheless, he allowed two sacks in his rookie season, good enough for an all-pro selection. Nelson proceeded to allow a mere two through the next three seasons. He did have a down year in 2022, allowing a career-high five sacks. Through 6 NFL seasons, Quenton Nelson has remained an elite interior blocker and on the team that drafted him.
No. 7 pick: Josh Allen
Despite not playing as well in college as other first-round quarterbacks, the Bills took a chance on him, and it certainly paid off. Allen was tasked to be a starter in his rookie season with no talented players to give the ball to. It was a train wreck, but help came with the addition of tight end Dawson Knox. Allen threw for 3,089 in 2019, over 1,000 yards more than 2,074 in 2018. His pass-completion percentage also went from 52.8 to 58.8. Though the blockbuster trade for wideout Stefon Diggs in the following offseason allowed Allen to showcase his gunslinging abilities. Through the next three seasons, he averaged 4,411 yards per season and 65.2% of passes completed. However, his shortcomings in the playoffs cannot be overlooked. He played poorly in his 27-10 and 38-24 losses to the Bengals and Chiefs. He did have his best career game in the 2021 divisional round and still lost by a score of 42-36, getting outdueled by Patrick Mahomes. Josh Allen has been an elite quarterback and will continue to do so, but pressure for more playoff success is amounting.
No. 8 pick: Roquan Smith
The Bears should have taken an offensive player, but taking one of the league's best rush defenders and coverage linebackers was by no means a bad choice. The speedy outside linebacker has been the most consistent player of the "nine mistakes", despite getting traded to the Ravens midway through the 2022 season. Through 6 seasons, he has consistently racked up 50-100 solo tackles, 1-2 interceptions, and 2-5 sacks. Linebackers such as T.J. Watt and Micah Parsons get more attention due to their ability to blitz effectively but rush defending and coverage linebackers like Roquon Smith and Fred Warner are often more valuable to defenses.
No. 9 pick: Mike McGlinchey
Offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey was undoubtedly the biggest mistake of the "nine mistakes", falling prey to the 49ers' poor drafting in the first round. Aside from a strong 2021 campaign, McGlinchey has been subpar, at least for a first-round pick. He has allowed 5-6 sacks each season, except for allowing just two in 2021. He is on pace for his worst career season thus far, as he has allowed two sacks in just two games. He was such a bust that the 49ers gave up on him, shipping him off to Denver in the prior offseason. There is not much to talk about McGlinchey besides that he has not lived up to anywhere near the expectations of a first-round draft pick. So of the "nine mistakes", Mike McGlinchey was a mistake.
No. 10 pick: Josh Rosen
Some of these players of Rosen's "nine mistakes" were busts, while others have been generational talents, and the rest somewhere in between. Josh Rosen was certainly the biggest bust of the 2018 NFL draft, as he was out of the league just two seasons after being drafted. Arrogance in the NFL is only tolerated if you have the skill to back it up, but Rosen did not.
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