In December 2018, Patrick Corbin was the hottest pitching free agent on the market. Fast forward to today, and he has become an afterthought and one of the most overpaid players in Major League Baseball. How did this happen? And can he still make a comeback? Let's explore the Fall of Patrick Corbin's Career.
When Nationals' GM Mike Rizzo signed Corbin to a 6-year $140 million contract in December 2018, he wanted his team to have the best starting rotation. Rizzo's vision came true since Corbin would record an elite-caliber season, finishing with an earned run average of 3.25. During the 2019 season, it seemed like the front desk had gotten their money's worth with their left-handed ace, especially since the 93-win Nats won the 2019 world series.
While Corbin pitched outstandingly well during the season, he struggled in the postseason. Despite being a left-hander against a right-handed heavy Dodgers offense, he couldn't find his rhythm in his first postseason start. Corbin pitched in relief in game three of the divisional round due to the Nats' faulty bullpen but surrendered four runs in less than one inning. Corbin wouldn't pitch until the fourth and final game of the NLCS, where he recorded three scoreless innings, but then surrendered a home run to Yadier Molina in the fourth and an RBI groundout to Tommy Edman. He then faced more trouble in the 5th inning, allowing a 2-run double. Another rocky start for Corbin, allowing four runs in 5 complete innings. During his final start during the playoffs, he pitched another 4-run outing over five innings. However, he did pitch in relief in game 7 of the World Series, recording a scoreless inning. Corbin failed to deceive many batters during that postseason. His slider hung over the plate too much, his changeup lacked deception, and his 4-seam and sinker were not fast enough to stop elite offenses. He recorded an earned run average of 5.79.
Corbin's pitching declined during the shortened 2020 season, posting an earned run average of 4.66 in just 11 games. Excuses could still be made for this 2020 decline, as the season was over before it got going. Expectations remained high for the left-handed starter going into the 2021 season but got shelled during his first start, giving up six runs in only 4.1 innings against the Dodgers. Corbin's next start was even more abysmal, allowing nine runs in 2 innings against the lowly Diamondbacks. Following the two atrocious starts, Corbin pitched six innings and did not allow a single run. But matters only got worse from there, and Corbin remained playing like a shell of his former self. None of his pitches' success rates dropped by very much that season, but the issue was his stamina and inefficiency. While he pitched more innings than average, he frequently started strong but lost control during the 3rd or 4th inning. Corbin finished the 2021 season with an earned run average of career-low 5.82. Fans began to worry about Corbin's decline, especially because his pitching statistics were quite similar to those of the 2019 playoffs, proving that 2021 was more than just a down year.
2022 was rock bottom for Corbin. The success rates for his 4-seam and slider dropped drastically, and he finished with an earned run average of 6.31. The massive decline in Corbin's play drew the of attention of sports fans, writers, and analysts. It was shocking and confusing, and the Nationals' coaching provided little to no answers. The overall reason for his decline remains a mystery, but the most promising theory is that the pitching coaching switch from Paul Menhart to Jim Hickey during the 2020 offseason has been the cause. Another is that Corbin has had the yips, which is a mysterious sudden muscle memory loss that can occur in athletes. Whatever the reason, the Nats' front desk is in a tough position because they went all-in for Patrick only to get one decent season out of him. Corbin doesn't reach free agency until 2025.
So, is Corbin's career over, or can he make a comeback? He has made improvements this 2023 season, with an earned run average of 5.13, but his pitching is nowhere near the vintage Corbin that we used to see. His stamina has especially improved. His career is likely unsalvageable by the Nats, but it could be for his next team. But if he wants to stay in the MLB after free agency, he still needs to make improvements, and fast. If he does land a new team, the contract certainly won't be as lucrative as it was with his current team. The main factor for Corbin to improve on is his consistency. It feels as though he gets shelled every other start, and can't find a groove. Nonetheless, the most accurate answer for the future of Patrick Corbin's career is that only time will tell.
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