During his first two seasons, Alek Manoah was one of the league's best pitchers, not even reaching his prime. He was the ace of the Blue Jays rotation and a very effective and efficient pitcher. But one season later, he is back down to the minor leagues. How and why did this happen? What in the world happened to Alek Manoah?
Manoah's rookie season was pretty impressive, especially for a pitcher. A 3.22 ERA through 111 innings is a feat that most rookie pitchers haven't accomplished. His biggest strength was preventing hard-hit balls, particularly his four-seam fastball. An opposing slugging percentage of .343 in the following season was good for a 2.24 earned run average and an all-star game appearance. Manoah's talent had gone under the radar until the all-star game, where he pitched to only three at-bats, all strikeouts. His elite performance on national television got him plenty of attention. Manoah's skills would amplify in 2022, making a case for his 2023 season to be his best and a possible Cy Young award. But that is not what happened.
Alek Manoah's 2023 season has been no short of abysmal. With an earned run average of 5.87, he was easily one of the top ten worst starting pitchers in the MLB. Pitchers with an ERA north of 5, don't stay in the league for long, which can explain him being sent down to the minor leagues in Early August. Even his prevention of hard-hit balls has sharply declined, going from an opposing slugging percentage of .321 to .466. Manoah is not at the level of excellence as in previous seasons, so what can explain this sharp decline?
Let's look at his pitches: His arsenal consists of a four-seam, slider, sinker, and changeup. The main difference to look at here is the usage of his four-seam fastball, which declined tremendously during this season from 36% to 29% That doesn't seem like a huge drop, but starters usually pitch 2,000-3,000 pitches per season. His slider has also been an issue. The slider was his out pitch during the 2022 season but lost velocity and movement this season.
No one knows why Manoah has refrained from throwing his four-seam, but his decline can be explained by issues with his pitching mechanics. His main problem has been command, which is an effect of many mechanical issues. During the 2023 season, the spin of his slider showed fewer seams and was under the ball, causing less bite to the pitch. His throwing arm is coming into a throwing position at a different angle, which is negatively affecting all of his pitches.
So, can Manoah turn his young career around? The first step is getting back into the Major Leagues. He will have to refine his pitch delivery. His mechanical mishaps are fixable, and there's no reason to believe that he won't revert to his all-star self once those problems are fixed. It's only a matter of fixing those problems. It may take a while, but Manoah can fix these problems because his career depends on it.
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