With just two months remaining in the 2023 MLB season, some divisions have been more contested than others. But a division that will come down to the final few weeks is the NL Central. The Brewers, Reds, and Cubs are contending for the division crown. But who will win the MLB's most-contested division?
Let's start with the Reds. The Reds are in second place in the NL Central, just 0.5 games behind the Brewers. They were not expected to contend this season, but a mid-season surge thanks to the rookie superstar, Elly De La Cruz. But the Reds have not been quite as hot as of late, losing six of their last ten and 3 in a row. Their aggressive, contact-heavy offense puts pressure on pitchers, which can cause high-scoring innings. However, the pitching is not as strong, ranking 26th in earned run average. But the Reds' most significant weakness is not pitching. It's the fact that if Elly De La Cruz suffers a severe injury, their season is likely over. Even if De La Cruz stays healthy, one-man teams often struggle to find consistency.
Now let's move on to the team that currently holds the title of first place in the NL Central. While the Brewers have not been consistent in the first place, they have been consistent in their play. Similarly to the Reds, the Brewers have not been blazing hot as of late, losing 6 of their last ten as well. But unlike their NL Central rival, the pitching staff is a solid group, while the offense has struggled to get much production. Corbin Burnes is having a down year, but he is still the team's ace and an efficient starter with a nasty cutter. Freddy Peralta and Wade Miley are reliable starters, keeping the rotation from becoming the Corbin Burnes show. Christian Yelich has not returned to his MVP form but is still keeping the offense from being the league's worst. The Brewers are a solid, consistent team but not necessarily a juggernaut.
Finally, the Cubs. The Cubs have been a mediocre team throughout the season but have recently given their division rivals a run for their money. After winning seven of their last ten games, they are only three games removed from first place. The Cubs have a top-tier offense led by Cody Bellinger, winner of July's Player of the Month award. Bellinger has returned to his MVP form, guiding the Cubbies back into relevance. The trade deadline acquisition of the power-hitting Jeimer Candelario and catcher Yan Gomes have been other prime sources of the team's offensive production. The pitching is merely average but balanced. Justin Steele, Marcus Stroman, and Kyle Hendricks are three quality starters and three quality relievers in Julian Merryweather, Mark Leiter Jr., and Adbert Azolay. The Cubs round out a solid team, one that is capable of taking the Reds and Brewers down.
So, who will win the MLB's most-contested division? The Brewers' consistency makes them a safe bet, but you must ride the hot hands late in the season, which means going with the Cubs. There's no denying that the Cubbies are hot, but their statistics make them better than their record makes them out to be. The Cubs have a significant statistical advantage that their NL Central competitors lack: a positive point differential. Point differential is the overall team stat, as it measures how many more runs a team scores than it gives up. The Cubs' differential is 79, but the Brewers' is -2, and the Reds' is -19. Perhaps the Cubs' surge was inevitable due to their high point differential, and their NL Central title will also be inevitable.
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